S.J. unemployment rate falls sharply | Recordnet.com

S.J. unemployment rate falls sharply | Recordnet.com

S.J. unemployment rate falls sharply
Pacific expert says May report actually is 'ugly'
Print this Article Email this Article Text Size: A | A | A
Photo 1 of 1 | Zoom Photo +


By Reed Fujii
Record Staff Writer
June 18, 2011 12:00 AM
San Joaquin County's unemployment rate fell sharply to 16.2 percent in May, down a full percentage point from a revised 17.2 percent in April and a tick lower than the May 2010 figure of 16.3 percent, state employment officials reported Friday.

The shift came largely from a normal seasonal jump in farm employment with spring harvest and planting activities creating 9,500 more jobs. That was somewhat offset, however, by a month-to-month drop of 700 nonfarm jobs, led by losses in educational services and professional and business services.

San Joaquin County's jobless rate compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 11.4 percent for California and 8.7 percent for the nation in May.

The more widely reported seasonally adjusted state unemployment rate, also released Friday, fell to 11.7 percent in May, easing slightly from April's revised 11.8 percent rate. The adjusted U.S. unemployment rate increased in May to 9.1 percent from 9 percent in April.

May and June are peak employment months for agriculture, San Joaquin County's leading industry, said Jeffrey Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific.

"That's certainly the case, and that's what was driving a full percentage-point drop in the unemployment rate. It's cherry season," he said. "Then you should stop reading the report and go have some cherries, because the rest of it is ugly."

Service sector employment is particularly hard hit, Michael said.

"Retail is down. Health care is just limping along; it's actually down year to year. We've seen earlier in the year gains in education services; ... that seems to be evaporating now."

In all, the California Employment Development Department estimated nonfarm employment in the county fell by 700 jobs in May from April.

"To have nonfarm jobs decline in May is horrible. That's typically something that's growing this time of year," Michael said.

Year over year, San Joaquin County lost 4,500 jobs in May based on a survey of employer payrolls, with most of those losses in nonfarm employment.

As in recent months, the largest losses were seen in government jobs with the federal government shedding 1,100 employees, mostly temporary 2010 census workers; county government dropping 700 positions; and public schools cutting 400 jobs since May 2010.

Retail employment in May dropped by 800 positions, wholesalers trimmed 500 workers, construction lost 400 jobs, and health and social services were down 300 from the year before.

Year-over-year gains were seen in transportation and warehousing activity, up 700 jobs, and the leisure and hospitality sector, 200 jobs.

Weakness in retail employment extends well beyond San Joaquin County, Michael noted.

"We see that in Sacramento. ... It looks weak in San Francisco," he said. "That's a broad trend. That's not just a Stockton thing."

That San Joaquin County's unemployment rate remains generally flat year over year, even as the total number of jobs shrank by 2 percent, is a reflection of fewer residents actively seeking work and failing to find it.

"Presumably, these are discouraged workers, people leaving the labor market," Michael said.

"Some if it is fewer young people entering the labor market. If they perceive the jobs just aren't out there, you don't have new workers coming in."

Again, that trend is not limited to San Joaquin.

The Las Vegas and Reno metropolitan areas are seeing their labor forces dropping by 4 to 5 percent, Michael said.

Even in Silicon Valley, where the May unemployment rate was reported at 9.9 percent, the labor force shrank by 0.5 percent from the year before.

Contact reporter Reed Fujii at (209) 546-8253 or rfujii@recordnet.com.

HOME